Texas charter schools recently saw their smallest enrollment bump in state history, signaling that similar forces crushing traditional public districts may soon hit them as well.
Students have enrolled in charters at significant rates since they launched in the state three decades ago — even as traditional public school enrollment started to fall. But with birth rates going down, new schooling options popping up and fears regarding immigration enforcement spreading, experts say that growth may soon reverse.
“They’re headed to a cliff, for sure,” said Bob Templeton, a senior consultant with an Austin-based public policy firm called STRIVE. He has studied Texas school demographics since the 1990s. “And I don’t know if it’s going to be next year, but it could definitely be within five years.”
