By 2031, public school enrollment will decline by 5.5%, new estimates project. Here’s how to plan for fewer students and potential building closures.
Less than 1% of the nation’s K12 schools closed during the 2023-24 school year but that’s a relatively inaccurate descriptor of enrollment pressures, according to an from education nonprofit Bellwether.
In reality, enrollment is shrinking, budgets are tightening and fiscal cushions like ESSER have eroded. The researchers suggest that the “era of rare school closures may be coming to an end.”
Declining enrollment, declining funding
According to Bellwether’s analysis of 9,300 U.S. school districts, 68% experienced enrollment declines between the 2019-20 and 2023-24 school years, representing a loss of nearly 2 million students. Declines were evident across all regions, with the highest share of districts impacted in the:
- West (76%)
- Northeast (73%)
- Midwest (67%)
- South (60%)
As enrollment declines, so does district revenue, the report adds. Between 2020 and 2023, 42 states enacted temporary or permanent “hold-harmless policies” to protect districts from funding cuts as enrollment fell.
These measures may not have worked. Bellwether projects the median district may have lost nearly $1.5 million based on enrollment models covering 2019 to 2024.
The 100 largest districts in terms of 2023-24 enrollment lost a potential $5.2 billion in funding. The median of these 100 districts lost about $37.4 million.
The state of school closures
Despite these losses, most K12 districts operate nearly the same number of schools.
“When school districts serve fewer students but maintain the same physical footprint, they end up operating with more empty seats,” the report reads. This results in unnecessary costs to maintain an “underutilized” school building.
For instance, leaders must staff each building regardless of the number of students. Every classroom must have a teacher and every school needs a principal, an office manager and a librarian, among other key positions.
“Spreading all of these costs across an underenrolled school site is not only inefficient but also strains the school’s ability to offer robust programming, course opportunities and services for every student,” the report reads.
Of the 6,308 districts that experienced enrollment declines between the 2019-20 and 2023-24 school years, the median district lost 25 students, or nearly one full classroom per school. These decreases were even greater in large city districts, which lost an average of 57 students.
As districts contemplate school closures or consolidations, the researchers point to 18 districtsdiverse in size and geographythat are currently navigating such pressures. Their analysis of these districts reveals three prominent trends:
- Most districts are only considering closures at the elementary level. While these schools may be the first to feel the impacts of declining birth rates, long-term trends indicate that middle and high schools may eventually see steep declines as well. Middle and high schools may also need to consider closure or consolidation.
- Districts announce large closure plans but scale back due to several factors. Alaska’s Anchorage School Board voted in 2024 to close two elementary schools, despite initially looking to close four. Public pressure was likely the determining factor for reconsideration. However, the board said that future closure will be necessary to “right-size” the budget.
- Districts regularly opt to reduce staff or services before or in conjunction with closures. Missouri’s Riverview Gardens School District is planning to cut nearly 160 positions. Meanwhile, the district is also considering school closures, but no decisions have been made as of June 2025.
Read the full report .
More from 91心頭: 4 ways to close reading gaps for middle schoolers
